Debunking the Centennial Institute's “Study” on Marijuana Legalization
For several years now, anti-legalization activists have spewed the same false statistic – that for every dollar generated through cannabis sales in Colorado, the state has to pay four dollars and fifty cents to mitigate the harms caused by legalization. This “fact” comes from a 2018 study commissioned by the Centennial Institute at Colorado Christian University titled “The Economic and Social Costs of Legalized Marijuana” (you can find it here). However, despite the study’s publication at a university-associated think tank, it relies upon half-baked data and makes no effort to compare post-legalization data to a pre-legalization sample.
Let us be clear – Centennial’s study from 2018 is unfit for publication, and would not have been published if it was held to any meaningful peer-review process. The institute’s former President, Jeff Hunt, used the guise of a “nonpartisan think tank” to push his own agenda. In fact, the report was not even created by the Centennial Institute but by a private research firm called QREM.
The authors of the report open the executive summary with the trademark sound bite used by opponents of cannabis legalization; that legalization costs four dollars and fifty cents for every dollar in revenue. In order to land on this absurd claim, the authors tally up all the “costs” they can think of; including $54.8 million per year due to “physical inactivity” by marijuana users, $423.4 million in lost lifetime earnings by high school dropouts, and a whopping $1,130,684,227 in total costs from legalization, just in 2017.
That may sound hyperbolic, especially when compared against the total amount of cannabis sales in Colorado ($1.51 billion in 2017, or about $226 million in tax revenue that year). And in fact, the estimates are incredibly hyperbolic. If the cost of cannabis legalization truly was at $1.13 billion while tax revenue from cannabis sales was $226 million, it would be expected that marijuana legalization had transformed all of Colorado into an apocalyptic hellscape with abysmal quality of life. In fact, it's expected that Colorado would repeal legalization if all of our opponents’ arguments were true. Colorado has not repealed the policy, and neither has any other state that chose to legalize.
One of the most glaring flaws is that the authors make no effort to compare costs from pre-legalization to post-legalization. Their facts and figures regarding harm caused by cannabis aren’t compared against anything. Cannabis usage did not begin in Colorado after legalization. In fact, cannabis usage has only increased among adults since legalization was implemented in 2012, according to the Colorado Division of Criminal Justice.
Also according to the Colorado Division of Criminal Justice AND the Colorado Department of Public Health, youth cannabis usage has declined since legalization – a fact totally unaddressed by the Centennial Institute’s study. For example, they calculate the costs of students dropping out of high school due to cannabis abuse. However, wouldn’t lowering students’ cannabis usage in turn lower the cost of drop-outs due to cannabis use? The answer is yes, but that specific question and its answer don’t serve prohibitionists’ political aims.
Like almost any public policy, there could be drawbacks to cannabis legalization. Our argument isn’t that legalizing marijuana solves all social ills, but that the century-old policy of prohibition causes far more harm than it prevents. Criminalizing cannabis, a substance that is less addictive and less deadly compared to alcohol and tobacco, ruins lives. A single cannabis arrest (regardless of whether the arrested individual serves jail time) can deprive individuals of housing, employment, and even the ability to serve in the military.
Our opponents continue to publicize falsehoods around the costs of cannabis legalization, but most of their arguments are as sound as the junk Centennial Institute study they love to cite. Before casting your ballot, ask yourself: can South Dakota afford to continue paying the costs of prohibition? Studies have shown that cannabis legalization corresponds to lower rates of opioid and alcohol abuse, fewer citizens behind bars, and greater freedom for citizens to choose how they live. It’s a smart policy, especially when compared to the abject failure of cannabis prohibition.
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